Ragnar Analysis Memo — The Iran War, Two Weeks On — How the Bitcoin Thesis Stack Survived the Stress Test
Multi-thinker convergence analysis of Bitcoin's performance through the April 2026 Iran conflict. Regime score validation, supply shock mechanics, and the four-voice framework that held.
Description
A deep research memo analyzing Bitcoin's price action and thesis resilience through the two-week Iran war (April 2026). Covers: (1) Regime Score validation — how the InvestAnswers rotation model performed under geopolitical stress, (2) Supply shock mechanics — miner capitulation, hash rate recovery, exchange flow dynamics, (3) Multi-thinker convergence — Saylor, Booth, Jordi Visser, and Cern Basher's frameworks tested against real-time data, (4) The Bitcoin scarcity thesis under fire — why AI-driven scarcity narrative survived the macro shock, (5) Forward positioning — what the post-conflict regime looks like for BTC, MSTR, and TSLA. Includes full analysis with confidence levels, data sources, and actionable takeaways. 27KB of structured research. PDF delivery.
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